Liu Zhibiao, Xu Ning: The Risks of Switching Between the Old and New Dual Circulation Tracks from the Perspective of Sino-US Economic Relations and Relevant Suggestions

Release time:2022-06-17Author: Liu Zhibiao, Xu Ning

In recent years, the central government has repeatedly demanded to properly understand, guard against and defuse major risks. Through in-depth analysis of the domestic and foreign industry association mechanism of the old and new dual circulation, this paper finds a number of key risks that may exist in the process of switching between the two tracks.


Risk 1: Rising factor costs may lead to a decline in industrial competitiveness

Risk 2: The transfer of the main battlefield of economic globalization from abroad to domestic may lead to the failure of the transition of driving forces of development

Risk 3: Changes in the form of the industrial chain and industrial cooperation may lead to the interruption of external technology supply

Risk 4: The logical change in the internal and external circulation of funds may lead to the instability of the RMB value

Risk 5: A series of problems caused by fundamental changes in the way of energy exchange between China and the United States and other Western countries


Therefore, this paper believes that these problems should be analyzed in depth from the perspective of Sino-US economic relations, and possible risks should be prevented and dealt with in order to promote the formation of a new development pattern of dual circulation. At the same time, we should continue to carry out in-depth reform, remain open and strengthen international cooperation.