Abstract: To promote manufacturing reshoring,the unilateral tariffs imposed by the United States have triggered countermeasures from multiple countries,leading to a profound restructuring of global value chains. Against this backdrop, a systematic assessment is urgently needed of the spillover effects of this policy on U. S. services and the potential development opportunities it presents for China. This paper traces the evolution of U. S. manufacturing tariff policies, constructs four progressive research scenarios, and employs the GTAP model with heterogeneous Armington elasticities to examine the cross-sectoral transmission effects of manufacturing tariff shocks and their impact on China's international competitiveness in services. The findings reveal: First, while the Trump 2. 0 tariff policy promotes the return of traditional sensitive manufacturing and curbs imports, it harms high-end manufacturing,and the benefits of reshoring are partially offset in multilateral negotiations. Second, manufacturing tariffs negatively impacted U. S. service sector output, employment, value addition, and trade. Productive services suffered severely, while domestically oriented consumer services saw modest growth that failed to offset the losses.Third,tariffs triggered structural realignment among U. S. service trade partners, shifting imports toward Europe and Asia-a trend intensifying under retaliatory scenarios. Fourth,U. S. tariffs have failed to reverse its comparative advantage structure, instead undermining the long-term competitiveness of high-end manufacturing and producer services. China, meanwhile, can leverage this opportunity to expand service sector opening and cultivate advantages in knowledge-intensive industries. This study reveals that U. S. tariff policies are caught in a dilemma of "sacrificing one thing for another." This not only serves as a cautionary tale for the U. S. to rethink its tariff-driven industrial reshoring strategy but also provides practical reference for China to optimize its opening-up strategy and build a more resilient industrial response system under external pressure.
