Since the beginning of this year, the resident excess savings have continued to accumulate, and the prepayment behavior in home mortgage loans has become increasingly general. This article aims to analyze the causes and logic of these abnormal financial behaviors.
Firstly, this article summarizes three main causes of abnormal saving behaviors of residents.
1. The precautionary motive is enhancing. The factors that impact people's expectations include the complex macroeconomic environment at home and abroad, the decrease in residents' sense of gain, and the perception of population aging and life's fragility.
2. The credit policy is changing. On the one hand, it is generally expected that the interest rates will continue to decline; on the other hand, the residents' willingness to deleverage is increasing. As a result, the prepayment behavior in home mortgage loans becomes popular.
3. There is a lack of high-quality investment products. The stock market and the wealth management market have poor investment returns, leading to a lack of motivation to shift savings towards investment.
This article also proposes some suggestions on how to effectively deal with abnormal financial behaviors.
1. Promote the smoothness of the deposit-to-investment conversion mechanism, mainly through stabilizing the expectations of sound development, optimizing the supply of the innovation policy, and revitalizing the development of the financial market.
2. Promote the transformation from savings to investment precisely, mainly through optimizing credit investment direction, innovating investment vehicle, and developing digital infrastructure.
3. Promote the transformation from savings to consumption precisely, mainly through activating the consumer credit market, optimizing innovative consumption scenarios, and vigorously revitalizing the holiday economy.
