Abstract: There are significant regional differences in grain production in China, and convergence analysis of grain yields in different regions can help predict the potential of grain production. With provincial yield data of rice, maize, and wheat from 1980 to 2012, we investigate the yield convergence for China by using the conventional convergence tests. Contradictory results are found between β and σ convergence tests. β convergence test provides strong evidence that the yields of all three grains are converging, which is inconsistent with reality. On the contrary, σ convergence test finds that rice and maize yields are converging, while wheat yield is diverging and there are three convergent clubs for wheat yield. Furthermore, using the maximum yield in each club as the potential production frontier, we project the grain output for each year. Our results show that the gap between real output and potential output is shrinking over time. The potential output of the three main grains reaches 6.6 trillion tons in 2012, which is still 26% higher than the real output. Our results indicate that the potential increase of the three main grains will remain above 10% in the next 10-20 years.
