Zhao Qian & Shen Kunrong: Administrative Intervention in the Background of Land Financing and Its Economic Fluctuation Effect

Release time:2018-08-13Author: Zhao Qian & Shen Kunrong

 Accompanied by large-scale and rapid urbanization, land financing brings growth vitality to China's economy, also with negative effects such as asset bubbles. The central government and local governments have different objective functions, so many games have been launched around land financing. Due to the lack of market-oriented control measures, the central government had to use administrative intervention to effectively stabilize the real estate market in the short term, but it also caused abnormal economic fluctuations. This study analyzes the mechanism of economic fluctuation effects of land financing and administrative intervention, using panel data of 98 large and medium-sized cities from 2008 to 2016 for empirical analysis. The research results show that: firstly, the land financing of the local governments and the administrative intervention of the central government will both aggravate economic fluctuations; secondly, the administrative intervention suppresses the fluctuation effect of land financing in the short term; thirdly, the investment fluctuation serves as the transmission path of land financing and administrative intervention to affect macroeconomic fluctuations.