Some of Donald Trump's strategies of Sino-US trade appears to be taking a page from the Reagan administration's strategies of Japan in the 1980s. However, a vertical and horizontal comparison shows that China is different from Japan in the 1980s. This difference is mainly reflected in Sino-US trade structure, export dependence on the US, monetary policies and so on. Trade frictions will have a negative impact on Sino-US economy, mainly in the form of lower economic growth and higher inflation expectations. In addition, the escalation of trade frictions will make it more difficult for the US to find import substitutes. Opposition from industry representatives in the United States is also evidence that trade policy with China is hurting American multinationals. By studying the impact of Sino-US trade friction on asset prices, we draw the conclusion that the short-term uncertainty of A-shares is still large, but there is support in the medium and long term, while the risk pressure of the US stock is increasing. Bond markets may see a correction in the second half of 2018. The impact on commodity prices will diverge; The broad fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar may become normal, and the depreciation pressure is under control.
