Kong Lingchi & Gao Bo: Influence and Countermeasures of China-US Trade Friction on Domestic Real Estate Market

Release time:2018-11-29Author: Kong Lingchi & Gao Bo

The continuous escalation of trade frictions between China and the U.S. has an impact that cannot be ignored on the expectation of real estate market, the capital chain of real estate enterprises, the trend of real estate market and the regulation policies. International experience shows that the economic expansion policy which is like flood will induce the serious real estate bubble, while the fierce policy control will puncture the real estate bubble. The substantial depreciation or the expectation of severe depreciation will accelerate the real estate bubble collapse. Accelerating supply-side structural reform and promoting structural transformation of the real economy are the foundation for the stability of the exchange rate and housing prices. At present, under the premise of " houses are for living in, not for speculation", we should attach importance to exogenous shocks caused by China-US trade friction on the real estate market, keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, maintain enough real estate regulation concentration, stabilize public expectations of housing prices, speed up the establishment and implementation of the real estate’s basic system and long-term mechanism, and ensure steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Since March, the China-US trade friction has been escalating back and forth. Under the background of trade friction, the competition between China and the United States is not only trade competition, but also competition of technology, capital and cash flow. China's core capital is not stock, but the real estate. Therefore, in the case of changes in the international environment, the real estate macro-control is facing a dilemma. We should take precise measures and stabilize our position, so as to remain invincible.