Jin Gang & Shen Kunrong: The Transportation Investment Effect of Chinese Enterprises on the Countries Along "the Belt and Road": Development Effect or Debt Trap

Release time:2019-09-18Author: Jin Gang & Shen Kunrong

Based on the micro database of "Chinese global Investment Tracking" from 2005 to 2018, this paper constructs the three-dimensional panel set of "country - industry - year" of Chinese enterprises' overseas investment, this paper adopts triple difference method to study the investment effect of "the Belt and Road Initiatives" on Chinese enterprises in the transportation industry of countries along the road, providing empirical evidence to refute the "debt trap theory" of "the Belt and Road Initiatives" exaggerated by some western countries in recent years. The study found that the "the Belt and Road Initiatives" significantly increased the scale of Chinese enterprises' investment in the transportation industry of the countries along the road, while it did not significantly increase the "questionable investment" in transportation. Therefore, the view that the "the Belt and Road Initiatives" of the "debt trap theory" tries to induce investment in external transportation problems and then exchange debt relief for the transfer of sovereignty of the host country lacks evidence. After a series of robustness tests and identification strategy tests, this conclusion is still valid. The results of sample analysis and mechanism discussion show that “the Belt and Road Initiatives” mainly promotes the development effect of state-owned enterprises on transportation investment in the countries along the road, and the enterprise investment mode is inclined to cross-border mergers and acquisitions. The areas benefiting from the development effect are mainly countries along the road and the Asian region, and the development effect mainly comes from the investment of new entrants rather than the reinvestment of existing enterprises. In addition, the paper also found that the " the Belt and Road Initiatives" did not significantly increase the equity proportion of enterprises' outbound transportation investment, nor did it aggravate the debt growth of countries along the road. This conclusion shows that the "debt trap theory" against " the Belt and Road Initiatives" is all false.