The mainstream opinion on economic forecast is that it will continue the basic trend of the economic operation of the previous year.The problems that we need to pay attention to are as follows. Firstly, we are undergoing momentous changes unseen in a century. Our strategy, policy and guiding principle should be adjusted accordingly or even fundamentally. However, the adjustment has a process with the premise of seeing the overall situation clearly and clarifying our thoughts and plan as a whole. Secondly, in recent years, the strategic adjustments that have been specifically promoted include three aspects: complete opening-up, regional development, and scientific and industrial integration. To forecast the economic trend in 2020, it can be summarized as three points: the downward pressure will not reduce, the policy strength will not relax, and the three major targets will be completed. In terms of the performance of economic momentum, if there is no pre-adjustment and fine adjustment of policies, the economic pressure in 2020 will concentrate on the layer of foreign demand and investment, which is specifically shown in three aspects. Firstly, the pressure on the foreign demand remains unchanged, the global trade’s downturn is hard to reverse in a short period of time, and the impact of economic and trade frictions continues. Secondly, the kinetic energy of investment becomes weak, the high growth rate of real estate investment is difficult to sustain, and the investment in manufacturing industry is difficult to obviously recover in the short term. Thirdly, the situation of loose monetary policy remains, but it is faced with the pressure of high CPI at the beginning of the next year, the end of the transition period of new Asset Management Regulations, and the narrow downward space of interest rate.
