Shi Xunpeng: Has the Oil Demand Reached Its Peak?

Release time:2020-06-20Author: Shi Xunpeng

As far as the development and changes of the entire oil market are concerned, COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented impact on the global oil market. Various forecasts show that in the long run, COVID-19 will accelerate the arrival of peak global oil demand. The primary reason for supporting this expectation is that the efficiency improvement of fuel vehicles may offset the growth of population and transportation demand, followed by the impact of transportation electrification. At the same time, the epidemic has had a profound negative impact on oil demand: first, people' working methods and consumption behavior have changed; second, due to blockades in various countries and regions, air transportation has been drastically reduced. In addition, from the production side, COVID-19 has caused countries to rethink their supply chain security, and localized production has become an option for developed countries to reconsider. This anti-globalization move will reduce the global industrial division of labor and the consequent aviation and shipping demand. Of course, with economic development and the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for chemical raw materials will rise sharply, driving the demand for petrochemical products, which will offset the impact of fuel decline to a certain extent. What is certain is that due to the long-term impact of the epidemic, the peak of oil demand will definitely be advanced. Petroleum and related industries must recognize this new situation and formulate corresponding countermeasures.