Basing the historical data of Jiangsu Province's foreign trade from 2017 to 2019, this report uses the grey correlation analysis method to predict the export value of Jiangsu Province from January to June in 2020 without the epidemic. The results showed that the actual export value of Jiangsu Province was far less than the predicted value, and the export decline rate reached the highest of 26.07% when the outbreak began in January. With the orderly resumption of work and production, the gap between the predicted value and the actual value of export has gradually narrowed, but the recovery rate of export is slowing down. Considering the full resumption of school in September with a large-scale cross-regional population movement, there might exist a risk of a second outbreak in September. The prediction results show that, assuming that under effective epidemic prevention and control, the impact scale of the secondary epidemic is 0.5 times and 0.1 times the scale of the first outbreak, the export growth rate will decrease by 3.6% and 1.36% respectively 4 months after the second outbreak. That is, if there is a second epidemic, the more effective the prevention and control, the less negative impact on exports. Given that the epidemic situation abroad is not optimistic, Jiangsu Province's export driven trade pattern urgently needs to be adjusted. Solving the export dilemma requires the concerted efforts of the government, relevant departments, enterprises and the whole society. The government's support for the innovative production and development mode of enterprises will likely reduce the negative impact of the epidemic on Jiangsu’s industrial exports.
