Abstract: under the background that the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta has become a national strategy, this paper uses the methods of nuclear density, gravity center, concentration index and shift share analysis to study the spatial and temporal evolution of population in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2018, and uses quantitative methods to explore the influencing factors of population shift growth. The results show that:①Some changes in the trend of population distribution led by cities did not significantly change the pattern of regional population imbalance, and the population concentration showed a steady growth trend. ②Based on the shift share analysis, it is found that the change of population growth pattern is mainly manifested in the acceleration of population growth in some underdeveloped areas. For example, Anhui Province has changed to a positive shift growth; on the urban scale, the positive shift growth dominated by the core developed cities has changed to a positive shift growth dominated by some less developed cities; on the county scale, the positive shift municipal districts have shifted from the core areas to the edge areas, but the trend of population gathering to a few big cities and municipal districts is significant. The trend of diversified population shift growth represents the differentiated demand of future urban development strategy. ③The economic, social and financial factors are the important driving forces of the population shift growth in the Yangtze River Delta, and the temporal and spatial evolution of the influencing factors shows that the formulation of population balance policy in the future should not only adapt to local conditions, but also keep pace with the times.
