Recently, international crude oil prices have risen all the way, easily breaking through the US$80 mark and continuing to rise. For a time, international public opinion was in an uproar, and they predicted that oil prices would once again return to the three-digit range.
Behind the rise in oil prices is the factor that the international economic recovery has brought greater demand since the epidemic, but analysts have come to this conclusion mainly considering the reasons on the supply side. On the one hand, under the influence of carbon neutralization goal, countries quickly reduce their investment in traditional fossil energy. On the other hand, the differences within the organization of petroleum exporting countries or OPEC+ members are also an important reason for the current high oil prices. In addition, considering the factors of the currency market, the Fed's quantitative easing monetary policy after the epidemic has also directly led to widespread inflation in the international commodity market.
This article believes that there are objective conditions for the rise of energy prices in the short term, but whether it can reach US $100 is not of practical significance; and in the long run, high oil prices are difficult to maintain. The current high oil price will inevitably have a great impact on all aspects of China's economic operation. We should realize that the current energy transformation still aims at ensuring security and promoting growth. Therefore, we still need to continue the exploration and development of crude oil, further promote the diversification of energy supply and ensure stable energy supply. Under the carbon peak and carbon neutralization targets, crude oil may peak and gradually decline around 2030. By 2060, most of the crude oil consumption will disappear. The increase of energy prices, including crude oil, will give renewable energy more living space, and then attract more capital, so as to promote its development, technological breakthrough and accelerate energy transformation.
