Li Zhen, Shen Kunrong: Research on the Causes and Countermeasures of the Fluctuations in China’s Manufacturing Total Factor Productivity Growth Since the 1990s

Release time:2021-10-11Author: Li Zhen, Shen Kunrong

Abstract: Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is an important indicator that reflects the contribution of technological progress to economic growth.


This article follows the traditional Solow model, focusing on the analysis of the characteristics and trends of the TFP of China's manufacturing industry in recent years. The results show that the TFP growth rate of China's manufacturing industry has fluctuated in recent years, and there has been a downward trend, indicating that the traditional scale expansion model of relying on factor input to drive the development of the manufacturing industry is rapidly weakening, and the connotative growth model driven by technological innovation has not yet achieved conversion and continuation. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement effective measures to promote China's manufacturing industry to shift to an economic growth model driven by high-level, high-efficiency TFP. The internal reasons for the decline in the TFP of the manufacturing industry include: excessive investment, overcapacity, insufficient effective supply, deep down in the industry, insufficient endogenous power, insufficient transformation of technological achievements, misallocation of resources, and imperfect mechanisms, etc. In terms of countermeasures, we recommend that scientific and technological innovation be used as the fundamental driving force for improving TFP, input and output as the main criterion for measuring the quality and efficiency of factor inputs, and the optimization of the allocation of resources and elements as the key means to improve TFP, and the improvement of the institutional environment for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements as the basic guarantee for improving TFP.