At the beginning of Chinese year of the tiger, international oil prices continued to rise. At the beginning of 2022, the WTI crude oil of the United States, which was only $75 / barrel, had exceeded $90 / barrel by mid February, and the Brent oil price in Europe was close to $95 / barrel. With the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine and the changes in the current supply and demand situation in the international crude oil market, more and more people believe that the oil price will exceed $100. Some analysts even believe that the further escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to the global oil price rising to $120 / barrel.
This paper analyzes several key factors affecting crude oil prices in the near future from the perspectives of geopolitical risks, global crude oil supply and demand, international financial markets and the formulation of climate policies in various countries. This paper holds that in addition to bringing huge benefits to international oil companies, no one is the beneficiary of the rising oil price. At the same time, high oil prices will accelerate energy transformation, which is also bad for oil producing countries in the long run. Therefore, there is no basis for oil prices to continue to rise. To analyze the trend of oil price in the later stage, we should re-examine the complex changes of long and short forces behind the market. Countries' economic recovery and low-carbon energy transformation should be prepared to deal with oil price fluctuations
