The results of economic prosperity monitoring show that in 2023, the macroeconomic performance has slowly declined after a slight rebound at the beginning of the year, and has stabilized and recovered since July. Based on the recent performance of the leading index and the analysis of the current overall economic situation, it is highly likely that the economic prosperity will continue to be in a weak recovery stage of the macroeconomic cycle next year.
The three main issues currently hindering China's economic recovery are as follows.
1. The micro entities lack confidence in the current economy, and the marginal effects of traditional policies that stimulate investment and consumption will continue to weaken.
2. The inflow of foreign investment continues to decline rapidly, making it difficult to consolidate the basic situation of foreign trade and investment.
3. The accumulation of financial risks may easily trigger a new round of trust crisis.
This article proposes the following three suggestions.
1. Stabilize social expectations to boost confidence.
2. Expand the high-level opening-up, and make sustained efforts to create a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized business environment.
3. Exchange time for space, and gradually resolve the three major financial risks.
