This article first uses a wealth of data to introduce the current impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war, including the global supply chain shortage, the rising energy and food prices, and the increasing inflationary pressure in many countries. It is expected that in the short term, these impacts will lead countries to ① pay attention to the stability and diversification of energy supply ② localize the supply chain ③ increase the demand for key resources and advanced equipment ④ establish independent technical standards.
Then, based on the scenario analysis method, the author predicts the future development of the Russian Ukrainian war. After considering the three different degrees of potential states contained in the two key factors of the scale and duration of the conflict and the response of government policies, consumers and enterprises, the three scenarios with the greatest possibility of occurrence are simulated, the economic performance of the euro area highly exposed to the conflict is analyzed, and its real GDP growth, energy prices and inflation trends are predicted.
