Recently, the western countries have focused on China's New Trio, which are photovoltaics, power batteries, and new energy vehicles, manipulating the issue of overcapacity in China. In this regard, while being prepared for a reasonable and responsible international response, the key is to do our own things well. The issue of whether emerging industries represented by the New Trio have capacity risk cannot be generalized. It requires not only dialectical and dynamic analysis, but also separate study.
Based on public data and industry research, this article makes judgments on the risks and characteristics of overcapacity in China's emerging industries, combining industry development history and trends. Among the New Trio, there is a greater risk of overcapacity in photovoltaic production. The overcapacity situation of power battery industry has been alleviated. The competition in the new energy vehicle industry is fierce, but there is no obvious evidence of overcapacity overall.
The excessive competition in the domestic market in the New Trio dominated by private enterprises is related to multiple factors such as investment promotion behavior of local government and company's own strategy.
In the context of a unified national market, it is necessary to accelerate the establishment of a medium and long-term mechanism for the overall layout of production capacity and investment guidance in China. We should gradually establish regulations for local governments to promote industrial development, and enhance their policy transparency.
